James, you seem to have put a lot of thought into the
tobacco stocks. You really like MO, and heck, at 37, I like
MO. But you don't seem to mention UST much. It's approaching
a 6% dividend, albeit with a 2/3 payout. But is that dividend in
danger? If not, it's hard to imagine that the stock could fall much
further, and in any case you get a 30- year bond rate for holding.
And it has 1/4 the debt load of MO.
I need to look at it further. I was early with Swisher, no doubt. But
MO held up well even during 72-74, and I'm interested in that
kind of stock. Tobacco is just so hated now I'd like to play it -
at the right time and in the right stocks. Any further insight you
have is appreciated.
BTW, there is a new drug out, called Zyban. It helps people
quit smoking and it really works. A pill that gets people off
cigarettes. It's really a double dose of the anti-depressant
Wellbutrin (generic: buproprion). There's a lot of potential here,
and I have requests for it from many of my patients. Long-term,
I wonder about the impact on the efficacy of smoking cessation
programs.
Mike |
