Gary -
I will be very surprised if Amazon makes a strong move tomorrow , but I've been wrong before. Most of the bond market commentators are talking about more bad days ahead , higher rates , possible inflation , etc. I can't believe that sheer disregard of so many negatives will prevail , with today's scare , but who knows ??
If it does spike , it will be over with in a day or two. Why would anybody in their right mind want to hold this stock , unless they expect greater fools to come forward ??
Finally , the Yahoo spike was based on profits , although laughably tiny (vis-a-vis the stock price) and a completely different sort of internet delusion , that it may become the "gateway" or "portal" through which all E-commerce will somehow be forced to pass. Amazon doesn't have the benefit of similar silliness.
Once the internet euphoria wears off , and these stockchasers sober up , I think we will see radical selloffs of almost all these issues.
It is only a matter of time before it becomes clear that there is not that much value in a book-order website , or a music-order website , when there are many out there , and price is the main way to compete. There is also a limit on delivery services , so I don't think we'll suddenly see 20% of U.S. commerce flowing through the Web.
Amazon's numbers tell the story loud and clear - the gross margin didn't get better , and the sales and marketing also rose proportionately with sales volume - not a positive sign. It's called....
drum roll please....... VOLUME WITHOUT PROFIT !!
And finally , the environment is less manic now , IMHO , than a few weeks ago... lots of MO-MO players had to be pretty nervous about
two o'clock today...could be ugly in days to come too....lots of running for cover , taking profits while they're still there , etc. |
