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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18197)	4/28/1998 7:26:00 AM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) of 50167

Good Morning IQ,..Re:<< if ECI induces a sell off NAPM or unemployment will reverse the phenomenon why-- because strong economy means strong numbers and if profits keep coming interest rates direction will any way be nailed once the core inflation is shown as dead->> You have an uncanny gift to be able to sort through the contorted reasoning of treasury traders. I see that you are on the mark and agree entirely. I will look to go long June 119calls or Sept. 121 calls once the ECI number is out of the way. June bonds have good support at 118^18 and 117^16. cbot.com A good article on rates going forward is from The Economeister, listed below, but he fails to take into consideration an important fact. - projected budget surplus going forward thus decrease issue of US debt. economeister.com US Price Deceleration TO End In '98 - Economeister This budget surplus (from higher tax receipts) should offset the upward pressure due to rising wages to keep rates in a range for the coming months, ceteris paribus, between 6.25% and 5.75%. Thanks for your observations, Lee

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