Yes, I've seen it. But I don't remember where. Basically, there
was a rule not to allocate more than 25% to any given sector.
They have cancelled the rule with respect to energy sector in
Russia, which I believe is reasonable. The short-term
debt is extremely attractive in Russia right now (should yield above
20% in real terms) so stocks are going nowhere. I believe,
however, the general direction for the rates is down. I just
can't see Russia returning to 164% short-term bonds, which were
issued just prior to Yeltsin's elections. Then there was a war and
a highly uncertain political climate (with Mr. Ziuganov leading in
the presidential polls).
I'm still unclear on the long-term effect of a US bear on Russian
markets (I have a defensive position in the US -gold and shorts).
The economies, at least, are uncorrelated - Russia enjoyed the
most wonderful time in the 70-s with high energy prices while
US had a bear. I guess, the collapse of communism was partly caused by
collapsing raw material prices. However, there is this debt, and
US market bear (Europe will follow) will lead to high interest
rates in Russia. Go figure. Anyway, the capitalization of the Russian
market is so low, it will fluctuate not like a market, but rather
like a stock. |
