Mike,
I've enjoyed your posts (and articles) for quite a while now. I
agree that the market is prime for a decent drop. This thread
is similar in some ways to the millennium crash and kahuna threads,
but the kahuna thread is more for short-term traders lately, and
the millennium thread has a more "dow going to 800" tone.
As for me, I think that the bear is likely to be deflationary. I
respect the opinions of you and Bonnie, but feel that the Silicon
Valley bubble economy is more of an aberration than a leading
indicator. Check out the (dis)inflation graphs in a bunch of
different consumables at yardeni.com . There is also
an interesting valuation model there that compares the 10 year
bond yield to the earnings yield of the S&P 500, it's been quite
good for the past 15 years, at least.
My meager portfolio is mostly in cash, I do have some DSWLF,
thanks in part to you and all the other folks on the value and
Deswell threads.
Keep up the good work.
Zach |
