Brad! Thanks..great work.
If I did those same numbers myself I would only raise 3 points. You
are doing it very conservatively but that is good, because I do the
same thing. Errr conservatively and anything above is icing.
3 points- 1 PRO, 2 CON
PRO
1) 75M shares is a lot.. yes I know 51M is a lot too, but another 24M
from here? I think Ira would be hanging a noose around his neck
(and chase away investors) if he went that far. So I would assume
less than 75M shares but those are conservative #'s so I understand.
<Therefore I would INCREASE your EPS estimate>
CON
2) SUMMARY of PRE-TAX PROFITS:
$ 595,000..................FIRAMADA'S ORIGINAL 5 OFFICES
$2,511,000................MYRIAD
$ 448,000..................NEW OFFICES & 3 SMALL ACQUISITIONS
$3,325,000................IT DIVISION PHOENIX
$1,750,000................WORKMAN'S COMP INS PROCESSING
$12,500,000..............MORTON DOWNEY JR TALK SHOW
TOTAL $ 21,129,000 in Pre-Tax Profits
It worries me that 59% of Pre Tax Profits are from the Morton Downey
Show. Obviously if MD is a hit, this is a brilliant move (and I
think MD will be a hit... until some huge backlash happens against
trash TV, but that is neither here or there). My point is with 60%
of the Revenue based on the TV show and 40% based on business... by
buying Firamada you are basically making a bet on Morton Downey show,
know what I mean? Its almost like buying shares in a TV show, with a
temporary firm added on as a bonus.
Like I said... I expect MD to be a hit, but 60% of
your revenue structure is based on a TV show which could go *POOF* or
cancelled anyday. Just a point of concern and would be happy to
listen to any comments.
2) IMHO you will never get a 30 PE on THIS exchange. No way. This
is not an investor's exchange. This is just my opinion of course,
but I seriously doubt it. On the otherhand, I do believe FAMH could
get a 30-40 PE on the NASDAQ (with 2 or 3 Q's of continues
demonstrated growth).
Other than that, thank you for an awesome analysis. Just wanted to
add my 2 cents.
I will be interested to watch next week at the price! If it goes
back to .60 I will see if there is profit taking at that point, or not.
If I had some free cash would buy a few thousand shares here to slip
under my pillow and look at in 2 years. (kind of scary to think I
bought my 1st shares in Novemeber at .40--now back at .47) Aye carumba
Mark |
