Hmmm...
I think this enigma will be resolved by monday.
Intel announcements, lock-up share dumping and the evil scheming of the MMs aside - the fundamental difference between the bulls and the bashers are their views of what happens on sunday.
Judged by its earnings TDFX should trade lots higher. But the sustainability of these earnings depend on whether or not TDFX will maintain its competitive edge for the next few quarters.
Predictions on that account differ wildly based on whether you compare TDFX shipping and highly profitable VooDoo 2 hardware with the competitors vaporware - soon to be vapor no more I'm sure - and even on par with VooDoo 2 performance, but not shipping product just yet.
Somehow I get this deja-vu feel from last autumn just before VooDoo 2 was announced, when everybody and their grandmother were going to ship VooDoo 1-killers Real Soon Now. Remember?
I have no quarrel with TDFX management so far. On sunday - and not before then - will specs and plans for Banshee and, I quote: "...current Voodoo family and beyond..." be announced.
TDFX share price is really a bet whether these new products will be able to successfully compete with nVida, Matrox and others in the future, or if an announcement will be made like: "...Duh! We, like, uh... made VooDoo 2 last autumn, and gave our engineers a long vacation. VooDoo 2 is it really, apart from this Banshee chip here. It's not really any good and have worse specs than the new Intel and Matrox thingies and others but we really hope you'll buy it just because we're cute and sincere".
That's it. Do your Due Diligence, then place your bets. Buy at a price that may never be offered again, or short the hell out of this loser!
The open interest on may 30 options were 1508 calls vs 168 puts last I checked. This may or may not be relevant.
/Sverre |
