>>>>>Hydrogen costs 4 times as much as conventional fuels relative to the energy that it contains. A PEM fuel cell, such as Ballard's, is not 4 times as efficient as any stationary power plant, even the worst. It is also not 4 times as efficient as an internal combustion engine.<<<<<<<<<
Stability in the cost of petroleum and utility rates is perhaps the most generous assumption you've made. Twenty years is an awfully long time in the modern fossil fuel economy. While we in North America have seen a net decrease in the price we pay for gas at the pump over the last twenty years (after adjusting for inflation), that has certainly not been the case globally. It can be shown that the low prices we pay for fuel are largely the result of governmental policies that hide the true costs. Many other societies have been less successful at masking these costs, and it is reflected in the prices their consumers actually pay for energy. It is altogether likely that as we move into the next millenium, drastic changes in the way fossil fuels are recovered and distributed will result in a drastic increase in the costs, hidden or not. The point is that, should such anticipated energy inflation actually occur, a large scale PV system at an installed cost around three times the current rate for conventional electricity, becomes less and less unattractive all the time.
The last time I checked, the Sun was scheduled to continue shining uninterrupted well into the next century. I'm not comfortable with the assumption that the oil will continue to flow with the same reliability. Furthermore, an increase in PV production, resulting in increased hydrogen production capacity to meet increasing demand, will most certainly bring the cost of hydrogen down relative to that of carbon based fuels.
>>>>>Hydrogen costs 4 times as much as conventional fuels relative to the energy that it contains. A PEM fuel cell, such as Ballard's, is not 4 times as efficient as any stationary power plant, even the worst. It is also not 4 times as efficient as an internal combustion engine. Methanol costs twice as much as conventional fuels. A PEM fuel cell is not twice as efficient as any stationary power plant, nor, after taking out the power needed to run a reformer, an internal combustion engine, or, if so, only very marginally.<<<<<<<<
And by the way, stationary fuel cells of 200kW and up, not just PA and solid-ox, but PEMs too, run just fine in a cogeneration configuration, which DOES allow them to deliver more than twice the net thermodynamic efficiency of any large centralized power plant.
Try reading a little about the long term possibilities before dismissing them based on a snapshot perspective of our time.
P.A. Lehman and C. Parra, "Hydrogen Fuel from the Sun," Solar Today, vol. 8, #4, pp.20-22, Sept/Oct 1994.
P.A. Lehman, C.E. Chamberlin, G. Pauletto, and M. Rocheleau (1994), "Operating Experience with a Photovoltaic-Hydrogen Energy System," Proceedings of the 10th World Hydrogen Energy Conference, D. L. Block and T.N. Veziroglu, editors, Cocoa Beach, FL, June 1994.
April 28, 1996 -- Annual Peer Review - Dept. of Energy/NREL, Florida "Palm Desert Renewable Hydrogen Transportation System." |
