Grayhairs... the answer to your question is absolutely YES. I have spoken before about logs, permeability, reservoir size, porosity, production rates, H2S content, etc... and how they relate to a wells success.
Much of it has to do with how you determine economics of a well, ie: will it put money in the bank?
If you drill a deep hole, and the reservoir is small (ie: might last just 1 year of production) and you have sunk 4 million into the hole and it will cost another 2 million for pipeline and facilities, yadda, yadda, it might be abandoned. I am not sure how close the LSD is to existing infrastructure...might be very close. However, until you know just what you have after production testing, it could be a "dud". A "dud" could also be a well with a huge reservoir, good looking logs, good pressures... but 80% H2S. A well like that would never be put on production. Or, if it is producing excessive water, it could also be a "dud".
So, yes, the 10% number includes all the above. I guess it depends on what you interpret as the definition of "success". To me it means: will it put money in the bank, or not?
mike |
