Steven:
<<Jason, you sound like you're not new to this game. Would you give me your take on WinStar taking a 14.9% position in a competitor.>>
Steve, I think you're right on in your thinking regarding 14.9%. Winstar wanted to signal to the marketplace that they would be the consolidator, without requiring any approval from Advanced Radio's shareholders.
As far as the synergy, it seems to make sense. Why not preempt others in gathering up the spectrum, as well as buy a foothold in Europe while they still can? At the very least, it signals to the market that Winstar will attempt to consolidate the space until they run out of money or are acquired themself.
However, I continue to believe that other portals to the local loop problem, will become available, either through technological advancements, ATT type acquisitions, or future sales of spectrum.
This in a nutshell is one of the reasons I'm short the stock. No matter how much spectrum Winstar buys, I don't believe they will be able to keep out competitors like ATT or other CLECs out of the local loop.
In the meantime, financial problems arise. At the risk of agreeing with Mr. Fink, I do think he is right that Winstar offered stock instead of cash as a way of using overvalued currency. That, coupled along with the fact that their cash position doesn't really allow them to be making cash acquisitions.
The acquisition is certainly dilutive, although in an odd kind of way, dilution actually helps Winstar. If you're only losing money, and you increase number of shares, guess what happens to EPS loss. Negative numbers actually look smaller when stated on a per share basis. So the time to be dilutive to your stock is when you're losing money anyway.
I will do a little more analysis on the price of the acquisition. Evaluating spectrum prices, which is essentially what ARTT represents, is difficult. Truth be told, others might have some better insight into the ways spectrum prices and auctions are usually evaluated.
Regards,
JC |
