Well, I'd had my money in a mutual fund for a few months, but the experience has been pretty darn good.
Of course, it never occured to me to short web stocks like EGRP, CSRV, YHOO, XCIT. They are so obvious. Before I shorted things like IBM, which I rode from around $120 all the way down to $70, pretty good for a super-cap stock, eh?
I've looked at your portfolio too, and you're quite vulnarable to the downside. The market can't go up forever, man. The '87 crash probably wasn't that serious compared to historical bear markets like '29-'38 or '73-'74. We've come too far too fast.
Why don't you try shorting something that just sticks out like a sore thumb. Take E*TRADE for example. With their growing notorious reputation, do you really think they're worth a $250M market cap? Electronic brokers are sprouting up left and right with better service, better prices, better everything! Look at e Broker or Datek or JB Oxford or.....anyone else basically.
What about CompuServe? Do you really think that they could survive against AOL even if the industry had a future?
Or if you are experienced enough with the web and don't mind staying tuned, how bout my YHOO and XCIT picks. They're on the downturn, anyone can see that. Until the story changes, they and their stocks are headed south. YHOO has a market cap 2x SEEK! And it's surprising that XCIT has a market cap.
Short sells are usually much easier to predict, don't you think so? I'd say my only risky investment currently is SEEK, and that is just because the web industry changes in a flash. But pretty much every innovation worth mentioning so far in the business has been from Infoseek. They are the only ones that will last the war. I'm completely neutral on LCOS, but I hear they may be bought out by SEEK, so maybe they would both be worth buying here. I definitely wouldn't short Lycos anyway. Especially not with Yahoo and Excite around!
You are right to shy away from short selling, but when you know there is nothing in the stock price but hot air, sometimes you just can't resist!
If you ever have any comment on the web/info stocks, feel free to post in the new info age room -- The Veritas Forum.
~Ben |
