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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 229.55

+0.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Tom D who wrote (3639)	4/29/1998 11:04:00 AM
From: zebraspot	Read Replies (1) of 164684

I try to construct a decent case for the long side of AMZN, but I just can't... I had dinner with a Swiss neighbor last night; a retired chemical engineer. He is very net savvy. Uses net telephone and everything. He said he only uses Amazon for net book buying --liked it and trusted it. I asked him if he had ever used any of the price-comparison sites, such as the Yahoo one. He didn't know of them, and claimed not to be very interested in saving a few bucks. He trusted Amazon to be good enough on price. Then I asked him about Barnes & Noble. "Oh! I like them! Do they have a site now" Would you trust them? "Sure" Then I mentioned the Bertlesmann site. Being European, he was also very interested in that. We also talked about Borders, which he also loves.."Great coffee! My favorite place to go and just hang out".. By the end of dinner, this guy was primed to go home and check out the other sites. His allegiance to Amazon.com was a thing of the past. Six months from now I have no doubt this guy will hardly be using Amazon. And thousands and thousands like him. Two years ago I was using AOL, probably like many of you. Thought it was the greatest thing going. Now? I wouldn't go there if Steve Case sent me a free disk for 5000 hours. Things change, no? The only way I can even conceive of being a bull in AMZN is as a short term trader. However, when stocks like this can drop 40% in a day, what is the risk/reward? What upside is left in this thing? Is it just as likely to shoot up 40% one day? Good luck to all. It's only money, right?

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