*AV*--On the WDC front, I forgot to add that I believe the 188-92 debacle has already been repeated over the course of the past months. The chart you link to is logarithmic but does exhibit the same slope recently. I do not think the correction will be as dramatic as seen back then. Back then there were many more Disk drive companies than there are today and the in fighting was horrendous. We are talking about the days of MFM, RLL, and early IDE technology in the 20-100 Meg range where business was gained and lost based on huge contract swings, pricing, and ability to get to the market first with a new higher density drive. A switch from 20 to 40 or even 80 Meg was a monumental effort and swung the fortunes of some of these companies.
As you know today, the major focus is not really on drive capacity, IMO, since the average user hasn't figured out a way to fill a 12 Gig drive<GGG>. The focus is on the technology (TFH, MR, GMR)used to create these monstors, cut throat pricing, and speed of data transfer. There are less players in the game due to consolidation with WDC possibly the #3 or #4 producer. WDC has at least both Qunatum and Seagate to contend with and worry about. It would not surprise me to see another round of consolidation where WDC could fall prey to a takeover.
I have limited visibility into the WDC organization. It appears that they are not as "fresh" as they can be and are scrambling a bit to regain siome of their luster internally. There has been some re-alignment of programs and projects which may be affecting their bottom line. I think we are looking at a company in transition and regrettably I wish I had waited another day or two before picking up shares. However, a little averaging down (keyword is a little) will have me poised for a recovery.
As was pointed out on in the RDRT press release (posted last night), we might be starting down the road to recovery. With the 400MHz CPU systems hitting the streets (as well as the 350, 333, 300, and WinChip), you have to have some spiffy disk drives to put into those beasts. An "old" 8-10 Gig drive will just not do<GGG>.
Andrew
My apologies for the first short response. I was tired and had a plate full of stuff to do. I am trying to re-group and beef up some of the rather sparse posts from the past few days. |
