Hi Larry-
What do your indicators say lately?
TXN was not (IMO) an optimistic presentation by Exec VP Richard Templeton (for near term) at H&Q.
-sees less than 5% growth in '98.
-continued pressure in semi margins
-near term caution is Americas, especially in US channel inventories
-Asia is in a cautionary "watch mode"
-seeing weakness in Japan.
-Europe wireless is strong.
DSPS (includes DSP, analog and analog-mixed-signal) will account for about 1/2 of revs, with DRAM about 12%, "other" was ~38%
Of DSPs, they have 3 lines - the 2X powering storage, the 5X in cellular and the C6X for dominantly (>90%) ADSL. Digital cellular is their main driving force now and for the forseeable future. They see the mixed signal component growing 20%.
In breakout, I got to question George Berber (head of TXN broadband networks) about ADSL. They don't see ANYTHING interesting/serious happening their until late '99 or 2000 at earliest. (This was echoed by MOT at a later session, and they seem to NOT be focused on DSL. On broadband, they highlighted their cablemodems.) They are banking HEAVILY on ADSL though, and expect ADSL to be a major driver of their C6X (>90%), with the C6X being eventually an appreciable component of their DSP.
When pressed, they acknowledged all the obstacles in deployment - Telecom Act/unbundling RBOC concerns, plant condition, T1 cannibalization, and general infrastructure upgrade costs. They acknowledge that C6X cost and power are also concerns. In the meantime, they will live on cellular/mixed signal and storage revenues.
Interesting, that they don't expect much expected by way of C6X outside ADSL.
Off to lunch! Good Luck!
Steve! (<g>!) |
