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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: al who wrote (7552)4/29/1998 6:23:00 PM
From: NicholasC  Read Replies (2) of 23519
 
Al,

Your figures are interesting. May I ask where you got 25% of Viagra failures will turn to MUSE? Does anyone have the # of scripts MUSE was running before take-down by Viagra?

Interesting point on insurance coverage. Have you confirmed it?

I was thinking that it would take much more than 30 days for MUSE to catch the coattails of Viagra. I figured that:

1) First, Viagra would munch a big chunk of MUSE sales for the first month.

2) Second month, disappointed users would quit the pursuit completely. And, others, not willing to give up so easy or be left out, would convert to MUSE.

3) Third month, enough convert and enough quitters decide not to quit but give others a try(don't forget both user and partner got hopes up and it is hard to leave issue as a disappointment, partner will give support for user to give something else a try).

4) Fourth month, we see stabilization and perhaps beginning of an uptrend.

My schedule seems a little drawn out but I feel that this turn-around will take time. There is more involved than meets the eye. Emotions, expectations, masculinity are all at stake and have to be worked through. 25% right off seems to imply immediate action on the user's part(of course some will).

This is my wild guess. Please give feedback.

-N
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