Hi Dennis:
I don't think it's Ashton that is responsible for the price decline but rather we're seeing unbridled optimism, unrealistic expectations and irrational exuberance expressed on this thread by many of the contributors.
Consider the following "predictions" expressed by some in this group:
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May 20, 1997
Let's remember that Ashton may have moved ahead quicky trading at $8.05 according to a few analysts and shorters but at $5.00 looks like a better long then short potential.
Nov.11, 1997
The word is getting out from a few of my sources that Ashton is a bargain at prices below $6.00.
Mar. 11, 1998
When Dec 98 comes around, most people will be hitting themselves for not accumulating at these prices of under $5.00. This current price will become history for good. You read it here!!
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While we all hope that Ashton and the other juniors will one day prove at least one viable mine in the province, I think it is pointless to continue to pre-guess the contents of each news release and the effect in turn that will have on the stock price. We all (should) know it's a long and painful process to prove a diamond mine and there are going to be many bumps along the way, both up and down.
I think if you believe, based on your homework, that they will one day discover sufficient value in one of their pipes that a mine will result, you hold the stock for the long term and forget the dips in between. If you don't you should get out now or never have gotten into it in the first place.
Who's to say that the best targets haven't already been drilled and the success rate in new holes will drop significantly from here? Who's to say that while there may still be another 50 or so POSSIBLE kimberlite targets only a handful of those will have any diamond count at all? Conversely, who's to say that the K14 complex won't yet prove economically viable?
What the market expects now IMO, is firm evidence that a mine will be built. Without that, Ashton will languish and drift moderately up or down from news release to news release. We'll know the final outcome in two or three years. Meanwhile maybe, just maybe, some are moving money around since the initial honeymoon in this stock is over (IMO).
Best of luck to all of us who are long and long term.
Wayne |
