Hi all!
Just wanted to drop in and say hi. Book marked the thread and figured I would try to contribute when I can.
At this point in the market, I am generally letting winners run, keeping losses tight and looking to put fresh money into stocks I feel meet adequate risk/reward ratios. After analyzing a stock, fundamentally and technically, I will determine a conservative (pessimistic) downside potential and upside potential and measure risk reward ratios.
ie...stock abcd is at 23...if things go "very"bad stock has a 15 downside...if stock goes very well, stock has 52 upside.... this would be an 8:29 risk reward attractive. As well, for example, a few large firms stated that CD might trade upto 28, 29 in next 5 months. To me thats 4, 5 on upsdie and if any other bad news comes in, or stock doesnt perform, stock fades to 15, 17. thats a 8 point risk, only 5 point potential reward. 8:5, no I dont like that.
As a result of the general uneasy feeling I have about the market at these levels, and concern for a pullback, albeit a healthy, no devistating one (although I think for it to be healthy it has to be painful), I am not commitmitting fresh monies to market leaders but rather looking for next years leaders....
all that text means I'm a value hunter, a bottom fisher.
Here is my list of stocks I consider strongly for the next 6 months...
WDC, SEG, HMTT, RDRT ( abit high on hard drives because they are good companies and the industry has been flat out ugly), GMH, SFA, ICOR, KEG, F, T, and a few others. Some real long shots might include BOST (what a dog), VRTY (although I think i am closer to being a seller than a buyer of it because of its recent strength).
I would suggest, as well, that readers of this thread also check out the Trading Desk Thread, which is a good insight into trading, trading systems, strategies, executions systems, etc.
Subject 15612
Regards,
Steve@yamner.com |
