Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 227.90

+0.4%

Dec 9 3:59 PM EST

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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (3662)	4/29/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: Tom D	Read Replies (3) of 164684

Alex Brown projects 5% annual growth in the US Book market. The college educated US population is expected to grow 20% between 1990 and 2000. Book purchases are highly correlated with age and income. We all know about the demographics of the aging baby boomers. In sum, they expect US book sales to be $26 Billion in 2002. I don't see a problem with AMZN grabbing 20% of this market in 2003. They can scrape up another $5 billion in sales from music CD's, video movies etc by then. And even if my estimates of $10B in sales in 2003 are overstated by a factor of 2, I still wouldn't want to be short this stock. Even $5B in sales, with a P/S ratio of 3 gets us a price of $500 per share, based on 30 million shares. At any rate, this is what is inspiring bulls to pay $100 per share for this company. It clearly has nothing to do with the current P/S ratio or book value of the company. Somebody else criticized this vision of mine as that of an unfocused company. Is Wal-Mart unfocused because they sell so many different types of merchandise? Best Regards, Tom D

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