Bobby,
That was where I missed it a couple of weeks ago to the dismay of myself and many others unfortunately. I thought we were in the Wave 4 correction from 3/20 through 4/16. This theory apparently fit nicely with the Wave 2 correction, which I believe lasted 24 days (from Dec.8th through Jan.13th). However, since wave 2 was a sharp correction, and very extended, then wave 4, according to the "Alternation Theory" should be sideways and brief.
After this break of 1105 on the futures this Monday, I knew there was something very wrong with my 3/20 through 4/16 theory. So I went back and scoured the market action starting from 3/20 (which I know for sure was the end of the 3rd wave up), and sure enough, I found that the actual end to the Wave 4 correction came on 3/27 at 1099 at noon that day. It was a brief and sideways correction, just as it should have been.
Wave 5 was due to come, and would be the bookend to the Nov.13th through Dec. 8th rally, an 85 pt. SPX rally. I now believe this wave 5 rally started on 3/27, and ended on Mergermania Monday, 4/6, and ran from 1099 to 1142.3 I was expecting wave 5 to be 85 pts. in size, but it was truncated. But at 43.3 points, it fulfilled the minimum requirements that you typically see of wave 5 moves, and that is at least 50% the size of wave 1.
So as the April 6th rally ended, my view is we completed the first of 5 primary waves that began on Nov.13th. Once all 5 of these primary waves have completed, which I believe will be sometime early next year, then we will have also completed the 5th cycle wave that began on Nov.13th, 1997, of the 5th Supercycle Wave, that began in 1982. The subsequent correction should be quite scary.
As for now, I believe we're in the primary wave 2 correction, a 6th degree correction as mentioned in the "paradigm shift" post.
Would love to hear your thoughts on the validity of this read after you've had time to thoroughly examine it and compare to your own.
Regards,
David |
