Good morning, Allan--once again, you make some very valid points
There is no doubt that the buy and hold approach has been the way to go, for many stocks, over the past several years. It is also true that for many of the best performers looking to get in at optimal levels has been a sure way to miss a major move.
I suspect however, that this has been because of the strength and endurance of this bull market. The following is an excerpt from another post that I made to the "ideas" thread which perhaps offers another perspective as to the wisdom of a buy and hold approach -- especially when one buys when a market/stock is over extended. In reading this please read "return" as being "real return".
>>For example, for one who bought at the top of the market in 1929, it would have taken decades to break-even. For one who bought when the DOW crossed the 1000 mark for the first time, it took years to make a decent return given the subsequent decline. If one had bought the Nikeii at its top or close to the top, one would still be down by
substantially over 50% at this time--after almost a decade. So there is a great danger in citing, these heady times as a reason to buy and hold for everyone<<
I am an admirer of Peter Lynch -- I recall several of his dictums from his appearances on WSW and other articles. I wonder what his view would be as to investing in the market at these levels -- he was a value investor and also did not invest in anything that he did not "understand" -- he said that was the reason that he missed out on several of the tech stocks. He could not understand their products.
On PFE--two comments -- my initial level for entry is about 12% off its recent high -- not much of a pull-back, really. On the other hand, looking to enter at 106 vs 112 is insignificant from a percentage stand-point. So you have me convinced -- I shall look to take an initial position at around the current level.
Regards |
