World Oil Features: Will the millennium bug give your operations the flu?
gulfpub.com
[...]
PROCESS CONTROLLER CONCERNS
Unlike the software of a marketing system, the embedded logic on a
silicon chip is entombed deep in the system and not easily
ascertained. Any given Distributed Control System (DCS) or
Process Logic Controller (PLC) computer board has many chips,
and their interdependencies on each other, and on other system
components, make them difficult to analyze and repair, Fig. 1.
Methods for analyzing this
equipment are only now
emerging. Compliance information
coming from manufacturers has
been sketchy and sometimes
inaccurate. In some cases, the
chips are no longer made. In
others, the controller is
manufactured in such a way that
the entire unit must be replaced.
Upgraded chips and new
controllers also would have to be tested to ensure that their
insertion will not impact drilling and production processes
negatively. Some studies suggest that there may not be enough
manufacturing capacity to just replace all affected chips in less than
two years.
Few organizations have recognized the full potential for possible
failure in embedded systems. Moreover, the supply of talent
qualified to identify and correct these problems is being consumed
quickly by other year 2000 projects. The longer that production
managers wait, the less the likelihood that they will be able to affect
the outcome pragmatically.
It is estimated that the average oil and gas firm, starting today, can
expect to remediate less than 30% of the overall potential failure
points in the production environment. This reality shifts the focus of
the solution away from trying to fix the problem, to planning
strategies that would minimize potential damage and mitigate
potential safety hazards.
S
[...]
On a Friday night less than two years from now, a tsunami will
build in the Pacific and roll westward through all major hydrocarbon
producing fields before reaching Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. We know the
exact date, not to mention the hour, minute and second. We do not
know its size. As with all tidal waves, it is safer to take precautions
and move out to sea, where its arrival may not even be noticed.
Disaster strikes those who are unprepared and caught near shore.
There is little time left to mobilize, so to speak, and move the
world's huge oil and gas fleet to the safety of the sea. |
