Here's another excellent article:
Cramer on Stocks with a Past
By James J. Cramer
4/30/98 9:55 AM ET
Okay, so I get into the cab, San Francisco, after a total
marathon of company visits, TheStreet.com promotions and
trading, and I'm dog tired. I always hate to ever admit that I
am tired, heck, I think it is easier for me to admit that I am
wrong than I am tired. At Cramer Berkowitz, somewhat
notoriously, I scream at people who yawn, and charge
people who sigh in tired resignation. This time, though, I'm
beat. I just want to get to the airport, get the red-eye over
with and get back to my trading turret.
But I've been spotted. Yeah, my newfound celebrity status
has betrayed me at a moment when I, quite frankly, want to
grab some zzzzzzs.
"Hey, I know you. You're Cramer."
I don't have enough hair to be confused with Kosmo
Kramer, so I knew that I would have to look sharp, be on
and ready, because I was about to enter my own private
version of "Buy, Sell, Hold."
After the obligatory discussion about how funny Joe Kernen
is and the usual banter of how much David Faber and Joe
must really dislike me -- they don't, in fact, get this, we are
friendly! -- I knew it was going to happen. And, I prayed so
hard that it would not be speculative, that it would be
blue-chip, or franchise tech, or great balance sheet banks.
But it never is. Nobody ever asks you about Bristol-Myers.
"So what do you think of Global Marine?"
I know right then I could have said, "Homey don't play that,"
or something smart-assed to show that I didn't feel like
talking. But my mother raised me different. She never taught
me how to diss -- probably didn't even have that word when
she was alive. Manners to a fault, please.
So Global Marine, buy, sell, hold.
Hey, I don't really do this individual stock stuff, I protested.
We whiz by a sign for 3Com Park -- expenses still a
problem there, I think to myself -- and I know we are
nowhere near the airport.
"Do you own Global Marine?"
What am I going to say to this guy, no comment?
"Well, I'll tell you," I said, "I don't much care for the drillers.
They had their day in the sun. I like the bluer-chips, you
know those Disney, McDonald's types. Maybe the drugs
on a pullback." (Hey, he watches CNBC, you can use a little
lingo.)
Nah, he says, who knows how long those stocks can stay
up there. "Those stocks are dangerous As long as I am alive
Global Marine will be a good solid safe stock to own."
And then it hit me, as it does so many times when I speak
to anybody about stocks, it's the history. People don't know
the history. They don't know what has happened in the past.
They don't want to know.
During my horse betting days, I used to look at past
performances for my $2 all the way back to maiden claimers
at Suffolk Downs and the Fairgrounds. I would research
bloodlines. I once went to see the offspring of Seattle Slew
on a hunch that I could make a fortune if I could just see
young ponies horsing around at Lexington.
But when it comes to stock, people don't even want to know
how the last outing went. They don't care if Global was
"hung" at the stretch or "tired" with six furlongs. Most
important, they don't want to know that Global Marine has
gone under my lifetime. Twice. That when I was at Goldman
in the '80s we used to joke how Global Marine stock
certificates didn't make good wallpaper because there wasn't
enough stick'em on the back of 'em.
They don't know that Global Marine is as risky as they
come. Remember, this is a key distinction. My cab driver,
an educated man who takes the night shift so he can watch
Squawk Box on CNBC, certainly had no desire to buy risky
stocks. But somehow he had gotten it into his head, with
the help of some money manager he had heard on TV, that
Global Marine was safe.
I asked him if he were a trader. He said he sells as soon as
he has made some good money but that he was underwater
in Global pretty badly. But he said he heard the guy on TV
saying he expects Global Marine to come roaring back the
moment oil prices rally.
Sign for South Daly. Getting there.
"Would you think about buying Disney after the split?" I
asked.
"Nah, all of those theme parks, very worrying," he said.
This conversation is why most people I have met have never
made a dime in the stock market. My cab-driving friend did
not know a thing about Global Marine other than it was a
pristine blue-chip driller. I did not have the heart to tell him
that Global was so shaky in the past. But, when we got to
the United terminal, I could not resist. I urged him to be a
tad more conservative, that Global Marine would not be
considered a "safe" investment in my world, wherever that is.
I could tell that, despite his professed enjoyment of my TV
rap, he would have just as soon listened to me as he would
the man in the moon. That last guy he listened to on TV had
more sway.
So I did the only thing I could, I pleaded with him not to
double down. And he laughed, and told me not to worry. Buy
some yourself, were the last words I thought I heard him say
as he handed me my bags. It's going higher.
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