Tim, now of course he's playing pitcher, catcher, and shortstop. And canned by Smith Barney? What kind of underwriting did they do 2 years ago? (I dunno, but I didn't think any.) A/W, add into your sub analysis the fact that the numbers are considerably fudged, and count as subs people on one month trials, etc. They have some info broken out in their 10Q, and their revenue per subscriber last 4Q was around 17.40 and this 4th quarter around the same/marginally higher, which in my mind tells me they're overstating the numbers of subscribers because it should be/could be considerably closer to 19-20 bucks assuming there are very few people on the 4.95 plan. Why didn't their subscriber count go up 2.5 million when they got the Compuserve subscribers? (answer: because they're fudging the numbers, imo)
Oh, sub potential. I'm sure that eventually every man, woman, and child in the US will have an account. Actually, they and the other manic internet stocks will run into a wall once the stock mania subsides because then AOL can't fund its growth via recapitalizations and the other stocks can't pay their bills via recap's. imo |
