Hello Vinman, and welcome to the thread.
As you know from your exploits in XCIT and YHOO, Internet investors aren't studying or buying on fundamentals, so your numbers are currently irrelevant.
Surely, though, someday they will be relevant. The question is whether investors will discount the stock accordingly, or wait for the fundamentals to catch up to the stock price. AOL is a good case study -- slowly but surely, the company is moving into the same universe, if not the same galaxy, of profitable companies whose stock prices are at least somewhat rationally tied to their earnings. There is a gradual convergence between AOL's stock price and its fundamentals, rather than a sudden punishing crash in the stock price that the shorts have been hoping for.
Without trying to put words in your mouth, I suspect your response is that the fundamentals in CMGI will never catch up. If my suspicion is correct, then that's where you and I disagree.
The essential question shorts need to answer is: On the day Wall Street wakes up and says "Hey, wait a minute, the Internet isn't so neato anymore!" to itself, and snaps out of the spell it's in, what will these companies be worth? Do you see that day coming soon, and if so, why? |
