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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: Lee who wrote (18221)	4/30/1998 7:00:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) of 50167

Lee-- This is what I said in my post in reaction to WSJ article- Employment Cost Index-- we highlighted it and covered the significance. It was nearly a week ago I said market will trade now on frenzy of economic numbers. 'I will base my future strategy post ECI I have 65-45 bias in favor of a number which may disappoint a lot of sellers yesterday- even if ECI is unfavourable we will have next day NAPM and after that Unemployment number these threee in tandem will set the tone of the markets not only here but globally. We had this gap which I use to pound the table for 50 days MA which filled in very comfortably yesterday. I got out of my protective puts temporarily the premiums were too hefty to be ignored however I will re-establish only if 1085 is taken out decisively I will not even wait for a two days close. The scenerio I am looking at is confusion out of three numbers in next few days some may be comforting others not but in the end when all this selling will be over some one will realise that we are not being able to hit the stocks the way we could back in Oct-- the arbitrage possibility will let the shorts run for cover-- the stocks need to sell much more aggressively then I saw last night-- it is time to keep watch on bellweather again--- Like GE MSFT INTC IBM these are the stocks which should crack big time to see that level of 990 again --- as far as INTC MSFT IBM GE holding above support levels like 80 87 112 78 we may see that short covering rallies will be equally ferocious.' Lee -- Look at vatious things highlighted in this one paragraph of an otherwise very long post-- our bias on ECI was on the dot --we saw the rally and sellers had to run for their life-- Bond call to be long worked out just fine. NAPM in my opinion has lost lot of significance with ECI today as you know it is not every month and quaterly number favored by AG does give us some comfort that may be Banker's credit analyst and WSJ will now need to bring some other theory to see this ginnie of asset inflation corked up in a bottle-- I think corporate profit warnings pointed out by you are first signs of may be some new deflationary thoughts. Lee- I am leaving for London tomorrow but I am seeing a very interesting scenerio developing--needs one of What ? post but at the moment I want to go out and enjoy May 1st Weekend-- a little fun after a great run is not out of order-- tomorrow is going to be another day- but tonight is fun time..Have a good day. P.S. Thanks for your attention to my details with a 'sparring partner' like you I think you can help surface some more uncanny convulated logic- that is how the man in the pit thinks. Think pits-- that's is only the way to make good calls. I learnt it hard way and had to pay my dues- it is my sincerest desire to make 'pit thinking' a way of life for trading.

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