Not a market expert, Chuck, but I think the only thing set in stone as of now is that holders of NXCO will receive .51 shares of ELN at some future date--regardless of what price that ELN is selling for at the time. Thus, the actual value of the merger to us will change day to day from now on. Henceforth, I think the 2 stocks are more or less joined at the hip. As you saw today, ELN went up 3 and change, and NXCO dutifully climbed half that at 1 1/2. Arbitrage should ensure that this relationship prevails until the merger date. At some set date, the shares of holders of NXCO will be exchanged for the requisite number of ELN shares. You can sell at any time up until then or hold and receive the shares. I dont even think that you have to acknowledge that you want the ELN shares at the time set, although some brokers may ask you to confirm it.
I am going to try to find out more about Elan myself. BT investing is exciting but after watching Pfizer, Warner Lambert, and the other big pharmas go up considerablely in the last year or so, it does not seem to be much of a question as to what would have been a better investment for the most part. With this buyout, we can all have a piece of a big pharma company, particularly one with the killer snail drug. Admittedly, the earnings impact for ELN will be less dramatic than it would for NXCO as a stand-alone, but ELN also already has positive earnings that are growing.
I'd love to hear others opinions. |
