The problem is not that people do not appreciate Cymer's potential but that CYMI is a one trick pony. When DUV accelerates it will be great, but until then it has the same problem that TDFX, CIEN, QCOM and other quality tech stocks do. If one thing goes wrong, there's nothing there. Ascend had this problem last fall when remote access concentrators blew up. This is the main issue. When visibility clears up, then we're off to the races for an easy double or triple probably. There is a lot of money on the sidelines waiting for the sign. This will coincide with large scale news about Asian capital expenditure, acclerating earnings out of AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, etc, then upgrades from the dozen brokerages that have these stocks as hold. We just need a catalyst.
Speaking of catalysts, a little industery consolidation would have the same effect. To help its own stock price, AMAT should acquire someone. Then we will have a virtuous cycle of concentration and top line growth, and we'll be on fire!
Until then, be patient.
Matt |
