Robert, Korea is at 65% or of industrial capacity (industrywide, no idea on the semi) utilization. That is almost as dark as it ever gets. Unemployment is skyrocketing and the chaebols are selling assets left and right. I am not sure it can get much worse than that. Thus, while AMAT may have a "sucker quarter" and may have forward looking statement that "sucks" as much, the fact might be that the present quarter will be the worst. I think we will have a powerful summer rally (from levels somewhat lower than the current one, but not too much, my turnips say the worst, if we get a bad break between here and early July is 8250 on the Dow, but as you know, these turnips are quite faulty). If CYMI can be had at the mid 19' (and I still think there is a good chance for that), I think that it will be a pretty good three months bet, maybe even longer term.
Zeev |
