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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 37.91

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3:59 PM EST

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To: Tony Viola who wrote (54868)	5/1/1998 2:23:00 AM
From: Jeff Fox	Read Replies (3) of 186894

Jim, re:"Mendocino as the second Celeron" I have heard this enough times from Intel to believe it. I also believe Mendicino silicon already exist. Rollout is anticipated in Q3, but I've heard rumors this may be accelerated. [Celeron] benchmarks, and there are benchmarks, Celeron suffers on integer software that misses the L1 cache. Most measures say it is slightly slower than PMMX-233 on integer stuff, but still screamin' fast on MMX and floating point. Intel intended the Celeron as a "basic PC" for the home market. At home most "performance" use is for games. With its faster FP and MMX it waxes K6 for gaming. The integer performance is still great for the way home machines are used (individual - non network - not CAD). Even Tom's HW Page says so. However the first wave of Celerons seem to be position at the bottom of the business product lines. Go figure. Anyway the Celeron provides the low end anchor price/performance at the right spot to allow it to replace all PMMX's and go for the economy of scale had by focusing exclusively on slot 1 product. Thus Intel has stopped all PMMX wafer starts. Celeron is also made on the .25 micron process. It is made with Deshutes chips same as the PII333 through PII-400. Intel's fastest chip is also Intel's cheapest P6 architecture chip. Look for Klamath to ramp to zero over the summer. (Klamath chips make the PII-233 to PII-300 product). I expect their product line positions to be replaced with Celeron product. I am not worried about Celeron sales, but AMDites should be worried about both K6 volume and ASP as Celeron is placed squarely against the K6 and K6-3D. Celeron-266 is at $156 today list. The market has already anchored the K6 to Celeron. The K6-3D is already being anchored to the next Celeron (Mendicino). PMMX-200 is priced under $100 a pop. Celeron-266 is heading that way fast. The K6-200 is the fastest that AMD Fab25 .35 micron can make. This is the majority of this Fab's output. Well, the K6-200 is selling below $76 each today and costing AMD much more than that to make. I wonder how long this can last? I wonder why anyone would buy AMD notes knowing the AMD rising negative gross margin and cash flows? Jeff

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