From the cover of today's IBD:
Wait Will Be Long For
Recordable DVDs
Date: 5/1/98
Author: Michael Lyster
Digital video discs have a lot riding on them.
Prerecorded DVDs are used now for
high-quality digital movies. But if consumers
could record on DVDs, they could replace
videocassettes, computer diskettes and even
audio compact discs.
With a storage capacity at least seven times that
of a CD, recordable DVDs are the Holy Grail of
the computer and consumer electronics
industries.
''What the world is dreaming of is a recordable
disc that's easy to use,'' said Ted Pine, president
of Woodstock, Vt., market researcher InfoTech
Inc. ''Eventually, you're going to have this.''
Don't jettison your CDs, diskettes and
videocassettes just yet, though. Recordable
DVDs hold as many wrinkles as they do
promises. Consumer electronics companies are
racing to corner the recordable DVD market.
But analysts say it will be years before
compatibility and ease-of-use issues are
resolved.
''I don't think the average consumer is going to
have a recordable DVD player in the living room
before the middle of the next decade,'' said Tom
O'Reilly, editor of DVD Report, an industry
publication based in White Plains, N.Y.
DVDs are next- generation compact discs. They
hold 4.7 gigabytes of data, music or video -
double that if both sides are used. Each side can
hold a 133-minute feature film and all its
accompanying video and sound, notorious data
guzzlers in years past.
In the past year, more than 500,000 DVD movie
players were sold worldwide, InfoTech's Pine
says. Some 330,000 computers with DVD
drives or separate add-on units were sold
globally in that time.
Recordable DVDs are in their infancy, though.
Manufacturers are having a tough time supplying
reasonably priced DVD drives that can record as
much data on a disc as professional equipment
can put on a prerecorded DVD.
The first use of recordable DVDs is set for
computers. Toshiba Corp. plans to offer
recordable DVD drives on some business
computers later this year for roughly an extra
$500.
Recordable DVD drive upgrade kits are slated to
be available late next month from Santa Ana,
Calif.-based Hi-Val Inc. The kits, using drives
from Toshiba and Matsushita Electric Industrial
Co., are set to sell for $400 to $600. Blank
DVDs, holding either 2.6 gigabytes or 5.2
gigabytes, are set to go for $25 and $45,
respectively.
Mike Hope, Hi-Val marketing manager, says the
drive kit is aimed at graphic artists, medical
technicians and other business users. But he sees
consumers using it to store photo albums and
home videos.
Before you rush out to buy a recordable DVD
drive, experts say, be aware that there's no
standard yet. Four recordable DVD varieties are
being promoted, and none is compatible with all
three others ee chart). So you run the risk that
the first batch of recordable DVD drives could
be made obsolete by future models.
''Anybody interested in recordable DVD has to
understand that it's very early in the game,'' said
DVD Report's O'Reilly. ''Things are going to
change before they get worked out.''
Another problem is that recordable DVDs won't
play on existing DVD drives, analysts say. They'll
play only on recordable drives or on a new
generation of DVD drives due out later this year.
Still, analysts say early recordable DVD drives
might find their takers. People and businesses
needing to store large amounts of data might find
the product worth it. Recordable DVDs are a
good value for the amount of storage offered,
analysts say.
Even so, ''You'll want to have a good reason to
buy it,'' said Wolfgang Schlichting, an analyst with
market researcher International Data Corp.
Analysts say you could be better off buying
recordable CD drives, which have fallen in price
to about $300 each and have become easier to
use. If you upgrade to DVD later, you'll still be
able to read your recorded CDs.
Use of the recordable DVD drive as a VCR
replacement also is some time off, analysts say.
Disc capacity, copyright concerns and ease of
use are hurdles. Currently, there are no
VCR-style DVD machines. But InfoTech's Pine
says consumer electronics makers are working
furiously on them because of the potential
market.
To succeed in the long term, recordable DVDs
need to increase in capacity to about 15
gigabytes, he says. That space is needed to
record digital TV broadcasts, which are set to
replace current analog signals by 2006.
Recordable DVDs also hold potential as an
audio format. They offer better sound than a CD
because they can hold more ''channels'' of music,
as a movie theater's sound system does.
But DVD technology poses questions for the
recording industry. Because DVDs can hold
much more music than a CD, record companies
either would have to charge as much as $100
apiece for music DVDs or discount them. That
isn't likely, analysts say.
An option might be a pay-per-use formula, says
DVD Report's O'Reilly. Record companies
could offer multiple recordings on a DVD, but
users would have to pay to access them by
buying several codes to unlock them.
''There's a lot of potential with all that extra
space,'' he said.
(C) Copyright 1998 Investors Business Daily,
Inc.
Metadata: MC I/3651 E/IBD E/SN1 E/FRT E/TECH |
