Interesting philosophy at work here. On the one hand we have ALYD, who, seven months ago, did a Reg -S and tanked. We all said they needed more contracts; they got more contracts and the stock recovered for a bit and tailed off. Then we said they needed to show revenues, and they increased revenues and showed a tiny profit and the stock recovered a bit and then tailed off. So we said ALYD needed to show a strongly profitable quarter, they did, and the price has ticked down a bit. Now the sentiment is ALYD didn't show enough of a profit and there's very little time left until 2000, so people are selling.
Now, let's look at the philosophy of another thread...TAVA. After doing a ton of reading on the problem and going to a conference where I heard experts speak about the problem with embedded chips, I agree that there's tons of work out there for TAVA, and that TAVA has the experts to get it done. Like ALYD, TAVA has contracts with big name companies. Thus, from a talent and opportunity point of view, I think TAVA is just like ALYD.
So, TAVA is in a position similar to ALYD in that they have all the potential in the world but have yet to have it hit their bottom line. Like ALYD, they hope to finally be profitable and should be. Estimates are about .04. Just like ALYD expects tons of code to come their way, TAVA expects to sell tons of CDs and get lots of consulting jobs.
Seems to me there's the same amount of time left for both companies, yet why is that an issue here but not there? I predict both will do extremely well. I recall when TAVA did a private placement after months of stagnation, had supposed short-sellers yelling "timber", and, finally, long-timers saying they finally sold... the price shot up and has stayed there.
I am by no means telling people not to sell. I am just trying to make sense of this whole situation. Besides, if you expand your horizons and look at Y2K stocks in general, you see carnage much worse than ALYD. Is the sector cold or dead? Who knows. If it heats up again will you be able to get back in for less than the price you sold? Who knows. That's what makes the market so "fun"!
- Jeff |
