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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 145.49-1.3%12:57 PM EST
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (5234)5/1/1998 11:44:00 AM
From: shane forbes  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Ian:

Here is what I posted:

Article fails to point out that bookings are rapidly falling off the proverbial cliff whether measured relative to sales as a BTB or absolutely in $$$$ ...

As you can see, I was commenting about bookings and not sales.

Just before a disaster the industry shows very high sales and then squat the bookings vanish and business is sparse for the next few months.

----

Here's the "objective info" with a picture of a cliff:


month   rolling 3 month bookings 

11/97   xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 1.60 billion (peak I think)
12/98   xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx  1.53
1/98    xxxxxxxxxxxxxx   1.38
2/98    xxxxxxxxxxxx     1.26
3/98    xxxxxxxxxx       1.06



(And actually one should remove say about 800 million or so from the graph and then the greater "falling off the proverbial cliff" shows up. Rationale: fixed costs)

and news of the most recent disaster:
pubs.cmpnet.com

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(The above is N.America. But the trend applies globally. In fact I'll guess that with all the problems in SEA, Japan only would actually be much worse than NA.))

---

One silver lining: In an environment with less new capacity semis might do well since demand (even in the PC sector) seems to be coming back or getting stronger and they (mostly non-PC) might get back some of their pricing power (faint hope - should really qualify by saying "some" semis)

and

soon will start the cycle over when they need new equipment.

---

Shane.
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