Dear JDN - When the underwriters issued a buy rating, after they IPO'd at 14(?), we assume that the management went through a thorough analysis of financials, business model, future contracts, etc. The price was holding around the IPO level, went up a bit and came down a bit, etc. All this is normal. Just before earnings release, the price started to drop. Somebody knew something and started selling. The company met the earnings estimate and explained how it was calculated it. Did the underwriters not know about the pref'd share dividend? Why they were asking these questions "repeatedly" during the conference? Why they go off-line to discuss it? Did the analysts miss the pref'd shares in their earnings estimate? As you say, they must sent a trainee to cover the conference and this trainee did not do his/her homework before the conference.
Why the price drop? With earnings expectation of 4 cents, the price was holding at about 14. Is the 50% drop justified by any of the above questions? I do not think so. Personal opinion, of course. As a poster pointed out here, analyst's downgrade is from "buy" to "neutral". They did not recommend "sell".
I think that the price drop was sparked when these underwriters started moving their funds quickly by selling. As you know the market is "toppy" and everybody is nervous. They'll dump at the slightest hint of bad or "not so good" news. When they started dumping shares so quickly, the market makers had to pull the plug on the price. Crazy thought? May be.
It is not like PTUS where the company screwed up big time with their sales and made a costly acquisition prematurely.
CMND is small, small float, has niche market and clients, has cash and ability to refocus on non-y2k market with a new biz model. I do not see anything worth this punishment. I got out of PTUS with loss. I am not getting out of this one. Although I'm not adding more at this price, I might add later. A long post for you! Perhaps your thoughts are similar and will stay long on this one. Let me know if anything smells "fishy" here. Ram |
