=Year 2000 Problem -2: May Be Good Opportunity To Buy Bonds
Dow Jones News Service via Dow Jones
While the year 2000 issue may pose legal problems for some companies, it may turn out to be a good investment opportunity, some analysts said.
'It's not an issue to be afraid of,' said Dennis Grabow, CEO of Millennium Investment Corp. in Chicago. 'This is an exciting issue, a huge opportunity.'
Grabow said he views the year 2000 issue as a 'wealth transfer event' whereby investors can create wealth by incorporating the year 2000 problem into their decision-making. The century date change could provide as much opportunity as the development of the electricity, telephone, oil and internet industries, Grabow said.
He said investors should understand the year 2000 problem could harm companies earnings by disrupting their information processing, embedded microchip systems and infrastructure in countries around the world. The problem will affect all companies at the same time, and put all financial obligations at risk, he said.
For that reason, some mergers and acquisitions may not be suitable before the problem is fixed.
'Every time you do one thing to expand growth, you're adding risk to your capital structure,' Grabow said. He predicted mergers and acquisitions activity will decline in the second half of 1998, and that prices for ensuing deals won't be as lofty as in the recent past.
The flip side of the problem is that companies will benefit from tackling the issue. They will develop newer technology, refocus their resources and strengthen relationships with vendors and customers, Grabow said.
Analysts also agreed that the year 2000 issue likely would benefit U.S. Treasurys, particularly if the global economy slows and the U.S. economy heads into a recession.
Edward Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, who continues to speak out on the year 2000 problem, said bond yields could decline to 5% in 1998, 4% in 1999, and 3% in 2000.
'You might as well buy zero coupon bonds, cause they'll be that anyway,' Yardeni said.
-By Samantha Ross; 201-938-2153
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