<<After Marc cautioned me not to be overly optimistic on Q3, I took a hard look the numbers over the past few days. Having done so, I came to the conclusion that it is very unlikely that revenue will be as low as 1405M and margin will be as low as 23.3%. In fact I think revenue should come in at over 1520M and margin should remain at 24.8% range.>>
From the historical data, the difference between Q2, '97 and Q3, '97,
there is an increase of 136m in Q3, 97. If I assume the difference of
of Q2 and Q3 in '97 and that of Q2, Q3 of '98 is the same, then Q3, '98 should be
1613m (1587m+136m). The result of Q3, '98 is not taking into
account on cloners' shares in '97 and the general increase of total
pc sales (increase by about 13%). If the overall margin is 24%, and
tax, interest earned are the same as yours, the final enaring result
is about 107m for Q3. Well, it may be too high to be believed, but
the data of each item is realistic with good rationales.
Phil |
