Lucretius, I need to stop using my brain and just buy calls. (ggg)
I think you need to start using your brain differently. If you look at the data dispassionately (forget being a gold bug for a moment!) you will see that there is no sign of inflation in the current numbers. While the GDP figures were higher than most expected there was no sign of inflation. So I suggest you stop trying to find it where it isn't and focus instead on what we know about Dell, and the industry as a whole.
Dataquest and others have estimated that Dell's sales are robust, and in fact increasing more rapidly than had been expected. Someone (forgive me please, because I don't recall who posted this) posted a source that indicated that there was a computer buying spree this quarter. Meredith and Dell have both said that this is another great quarter. Finally, todays news is that Compaq is finally selling a significant number of machines and that its inventory problems may soon be over. OK -- that's all short term stuff.
Long term, Dell is building new plants all over the world because its capacity is maxing out. South America, China, Ireland, Austin. In addition, lots of older computers will need to be replaced because of y2k chip problems -BIOS. Windows NT 5.0 will be released. So the intermediate term sure looks good.
Long term? I don't know. Technology moves so quickly that two years is a lifetime.
So, if you stop using your brain to try to justify a position which you yourself indicated could not be supported by evidence until after it happened (a shaky proposition as far as I'm concerned, because all of the econometric models I've seen look pretty good), and instead took a more dispassionate view I think your perspective will change.
TTFN,
CTC
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