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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues

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To: Stewart V. Nelson who wrote (1513)5/1/1998 3:05:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston  Read Replies (3) of 9818
 
<I have read over 2500 reports and must say that the "Doom and Gloom" reported in the Triaxsys report which you reference is missing from the reports I have read.>

I didn't reference the Triaxsys report (vpelt did). I referenced, and included excerpts, from the GAO SEC Report. The SEC report is what made me nervous.
Message 4283405

<Over 85% stated that the date change will not have a material affect on their operations at least as far their internal systems go.>

However, I just got back from a Y2K investment conference and this was discussed. Glenn Stastny, Partner, Deloitte & Touche specifically addressed SEC, Accounting & Financial Disclosure issues. The primary point made was disappointment that most Y2K disclosures have basically been "boilerplate" disclosures that don't say much. (He used 3 generic phrases as examples of what everyone uses in their disclosure.) Most don't include dollar figures. Soft costs vs hard costs hide the real financial impact. None discuss specifics.

<Admittedly, there are some "horror' stories and everyone is worried about third party issues, but many companies have surveyed important vendors and customers and the early reports are encouraging.>

Please give me a specific example where companies have surveyed important vendors and customers and the early reports are encouraging.

This was probably the biggest issue brought up repeatedly by almost every speaker ... vulnerability because of suppliers ... even distribution. There was a very dramatic and impactful presentation by Don Butte, V.P., Kraft Foods. Kraft has some key suppliers who don't have the money nor the expertise for the Y2K fix ... particularly on the plant floor. In some instances Kraft will be funding the supplier fix. In other instances they will be providing personnel to oversee and manage supplier fix. Some suppliers will be cut-off. Kraft will be discontinuing some product lines.

What was particularly interesting to me is that Don has both computer science and electrical engineering degrees. A rare combination. He was aware of the embedded system problem back in the early 80's and tried to minimize dependency on embedded systems as plants were being built or re-vamped since that time. He openly admitted they would not be ready in time. I admired his honesty. And yet, Kraft is far ahead of most companies.

If they've been aware of this, and have been trying to minimize the problem, since the 80's, and they're running into these types of problems ... how about the manufacturing and process control companies, who realized only recently that there were problems on the plant floor ... theirs and their suppliers???

You cannot get a handle on costs until you do an inventory and assessment. Many Fortune 500 companies unbelievably still haven't completed this phase.

Unilever budgeted 185 million dollars for Y2K. After completing inventory & assessment on plant floors in November '97, the figure tripled to 472 million dollars. GM spent 40 million last year. Budget has increased to 300-500 million ... most of which will be spent over next 1-1/2 years.

If you really want to get a handle on what's really going on, you should attend some of these conferences where people from various industries (not computer consultants) give case studies and actual examples.

Cheryl

Here's an example of "costs" not being material". TAVA is involved with assessment and remediation for 125 Bristel-Myers Squibb plants worldwide. They did a pilot, and now they're involved with world-wide roll-out. Probably most of the labor (guessing) will be done "inside" (soft costs). It's far easier to "hide" actual costs this way. IMHO
Message 4283175

Coke is only now surveying critical suppliers
Message 4283221

Intel is also contacting critical suppliers of products and services to determine that the suppliers' operations and the products and services they provide are year 2000 capable or to monitor their progress toward year 2000 capability.
Message 4284928

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