Chuz, just back into town from a late golf trip to San Antonio, and saw what DELL had for me. (ggg) WARNING!! DELL is approaching blowoff territory. I've been saying this for the last 13 pts, but the low vol will catch up w/ DELL eventually and cause a blowoff back to the 60's and worse w/ time. It could run to 90 or 100 before that happens? I don't know. You can't predict manias. DELL longs are basically playing a poker game in here. Holding everyone will hold long enough for them to get just a little more. I sincerely hope ALL DELL longs consider selling a little into these low vol new highs. DELL's current levels are unsustainable and look like a classic top to a great stock.
BTW- mkt also looks VERY toppy. Internals continue to decline. Breadth of rally today was less than 2:1. Put/Call ratio has already turned bearish again as people are buying up calls on indiv securties after only 2 down days. UTIL were DOWN again. TRANS DOWN again. Notice how the bond didn't break down today and actually closed up almost back at the open which was the high of thee day. Rates are going up. count on it. All the numbers show increasing strength. Oil was up another .65 back up over 16.00 and it will go MUCH higher. Building is on fire here in TX and elsewhere in the country. Real estate prices continue to rise. Stock prices.... no need to discuss. Labor groups are beginning to complain about salaries (notice this in the news? I have) Gold while off slightly w/ the bond today, is still in an uptrend. mmmmmm? This bull is coming to a close and right soon. I give it 1 to 3 months tops. I can wait on my DELL puts. Got lots of time--- year 2000 (didn't need that much and wish I hadn't paid for it, but I'm very risk averse). When DELL collapses, it will be a sight to behold. The stock could easily go back to 30. You laugh, but you have never seen the other end of the mo-mo gun that is currently driving DELL. Imagine others just like yourself that have 300% to 500% gains in DELL not to mention the mo-mo players, they won't hesitate to dump DELL if it shows weakness and the mkt begins to roll over. I sincerely hope that you do not give in to greed, and take your profits here. Pat yourself on the back. You made a heap of money. Walk away a winner. Not trying to scare anyone.... just giving a stern warning.
BTW--When DELL begins dropping, all the analysts will explain it away as just profit taking and mkt fears (remember this when it happens). This will of course be incorrect. DELL will have peaked. If you don't believe my overall mkt euphoria and topping theory (which DELL is one of the primary cheerleaders for at 50X+!!!!!!!!!! '98 earnings. Here's some more fundi probs in addition to what I ahve posted previously (which I still stand by...BTW) If Win98's release is slowed or put off indef. could be VERY bad for box makers. Remember, DELL sells a commodity much like DRAMS. Recall in '95 when everyone thought DRAM prices will just keep going up and DRAM co's would keep raking it in? Don't be the guy that held MU at 80 and wouldn't sell when it started plummetting. Just my opinion, but you can hold me to it. Feel free to make fun of me in a couple of months if I'm wrong about this. If I'm right, I expect apologies from this board (ggg) I know I won't get them though. :)
Good Luck!!
-Lucretius |
