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Technology Stocks : IFLY - travel sales on the web pure play
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To: LAWRENCE C. who wrote (937)5/2/1998 12:12:00 AM
From: Prophet  Read Replies (1) of 4761
 
I think we will be in for a pleasant earnings surprise early next week.

A few observations about IFLY:

1) No company in their right mind with the top notch management and tremendous potential IFLY has would even think of coming out with an IPO unless they can deliver good numbers during the first quarter after the IPO.

2) Although the first quarter of the year is traditionally the slowest travel season, the airlines have done particularly well this time around due to lower oil prices, but also in great significance to the increase traveling resulting from a good economy. There is no reason to think IFLY would not have a direct benefit from that as well.

3) The recent IFLy merger would allow them to realize some significant economies of scale which may not have been fully reflected during the last quarter's numbers although you can see they did realize an immediate benefit.

4) IFLY has already had plenty of opportunities to announce bad numbers, if that was the case, during the times the stock has reached the 9-10 range. That level would had helped absorb the shock of a bad quarter. They did not announce.

5) The recent "strong buy recommendation" by Stock Investor (I believe is the name) does not appear to be incidental at all. in fact, if you read the article again it would almost appear that someone coach the author on what to say. Some words may even echo some of the comments made here in the IFLY forum. Nevertheless, the recommendation was a good one and behind the scenes, IFLY probably had something to do with it. To me this looks as a last attempt to boost the stock prior to an announcement by the company. There is no point in boosting a good stock and then follow it immediately with a bad earnings announcement. Since there is no news in the future between now and May 15th, other than potential news from the company itself, there is no point in delaying the earnings announcement and running the change of deteriorating the stock price even more. Therefore, the company will announce early next week and the news will be good!
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