Were doomed Between Elaine and Lucifer we have had it. See below:
Garzarelli: Dow 11,500
Analyst says market is not overvalued, predicts 11,500 by 2000
May 1, 1998: 6:44 p.m. ET
More related sites... NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Wall Street's bulls will get little rest between now and the year 2000, according to a top stock analyst, who predicts the Dow will reach 11,500 by the end of the century.
Elaine Garzarelli, market strategist at Garzarelli Investment Management, told CNNfn's "Street Sweep" that declines in the 10-year bond yield, combined with low inflation, will bolster stocks significantly, even if corporate earnings stay flat.
Garzarelli credited strong economic fundamentals for the bull market.
"I never in my career thought I would see the end of communism, inflation below 3 percent. and I never thought I would see a budget surplus," said Garzarelli. "We've got all those things."
She also said that the valuation indicators of the past four years are "no longer relevant," adding "the key to everything" is the rate of inflation.
"People think because they are looking at the old indicators that [the stock market] is overvalued," said Garzarelli. "(But) it wouldn't be overvalued until it got to maybe 9,400."
Garzarelli anticipates flat corporate profits largely due to the Asian crisis and predicts gross domestic product growth will slow to 2 percent or 2.5 percent by year's end.
On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported the economy grew at a tronger-than-expected annualized rate of 4.2 percent in the first quarter, while the implicit price deflator, a key inflation indicator, rose only 0.9 percent -- its smallest increase in 34 years. The report sent the Dow industrials soaring more than 118 points on Thursday and contributed to Friday's 83-point gain, bringing the blue chip index to 9,147.
Garzarelli said the Asian crisis has helped curb inflation.
Garzarelli recommended small investors look at food, tobacco and drug shares, as well as financials, stocks she predicts will have earnings growth better than zero.
She said she was unconcerned about asset inflation.
"If you look at the new inflation numbers and the new valuation indicators... the stock market is not even fully stretched yet," said Garzarelli
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