Joe,
I was expecting to retest the lows for ATVI...Second opinion still rates ATVI an "Avoid" however, the ratings usually lag by a week since a lot of the indicators are backward indicators. I have found that Second opinion is a great tool and a great way not to get burned badly, as it is often correct.
However, I have bought in again today. I haven't done so since before the last drop. My reasoning is as follows:
Just downloading some technical graphs:
askresearch.com
It seems that ATVI is due for a pop. It would seem that ATVI has been under considerable accumulation with nice on balance volume and money flow. Also the MACD suggests that we are also heading up.
As predictive indicators go, both stochastics, Williams %R look favorable now.
I realize that the above sounds just like cursory interpretation/reading of technical indicators, and I'll concede to that. But in my relatively brief experience with technical analysis, when all of the indicators seem to point upwards, there is usually something there.
Also, I have mentioned the 5 wave decline previously. We are in the last leg of the decline, where we would expect to see a double bottom.
Looking at the graph, one could possibly see a double bottom already, albeit a very shallow one since mid-March. We have been basing around $11 for a month and a half....the longer we can base, the stronger the breakout will be.
From a fundamental point of view, I think that ATVI is on the borderline. Someone from the Yahoo board seems to think that ATVI will come up short for this next quarter due to product slippage. This could very well be possible. First of all, the first quarter has traditionally been weak. Secondly, I believe that Sin was expected out this Spring but from the article in OGR that I referenced in a previous post, it seems that Sin will make it out this fall instead. Vigilante 8 apparently will ship to avoid direct competition with Twisted Metal.
However, ATVI is putting together a nice string of titles for this year. E3 at the end of this month should bring this home. Screamin' Demons is quite a surprise to me. I was expecting something like A-10 Attack:Cuba....this title from Parsoft was, IMO, a generic me-too product. Looking at some of the screenshots from the OGR E3 preview, you can clearly see that Screamin demons more closely resembles MPRS' Falcon 4 or Jane's F-15....definitely a pleasant surprise.
Sin, QII mission pack, Asteroids, Heavy Gear II look great...as does Vigilante 8. Probably a new installment in the Zork trilogy this year too.
Apocalypse could be great....we'll have to wait and see. Pitfall appears to be doing well. Hexen II and Dark Reign expansion packs are apparently great products but I don't know how they are selling. A brief check in some stores suggests they are moving slowly. The same goes for Battlezone. I have been assured, however, that marketing is getting an internal review and hopefully this will lead to more creative marketing rather than the traditional slash and burn fare. Today's announcement on the porting of QII and Nightmare Creatures to the N64 is good news, although N64 appears to be losing steam, especially in Japan.
The upshot of all of this is: ATVI's stock price does not reflect high expectations for the company, unlike say, ERTS. By all valuations, the stock is cheap and I don't expect it to stay this way for very much longer. In my next post, I will try to compare ATVI with some of its competitors.
Tom |
