Steven:
<<You can't make a safer buck fifty some other way? Right now your max reward is 1.50, and as I see it, risking about $50. Risk/reward equal 1.5/50=.03.>>
So now we've gone from a $30 takeover premium to a $50 premium. Let me know when you decide to stop the bidding so I can say "SOLD"
I calculate the maximum risk as no more than double today's level in three months, or roughly $75 a share. And that's in 3 months, a big maybe.
Even so, 1.5/25 =6%, and I'd say the odds of a takeover value at 2x the price is highly unlikely. So yes, 6% is a market inefficiency.
We could go round and round with this silly "YOU SOLD OPTIONS ARE YOU KIDDING ME" dialogue, but I'm sure it would get boring for the rest of the thread, if it hasn't already.
In the meantime, your point about spectrum licenses is a valid one, although I'm not sure anyone can truly peg their value. It's part of a larger issue, namely unlimited radio spectrum. Watch the next round of FCC bidding and the subsequent bankruptcies if you don't believe me.
Regards,
JC |
