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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting

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To: Bwe who wrote (2746)	5/2/1998 10:00:00 AM
From: Ms. X	Read Replies (3) of 34810

Market Comment from Tom Dorsey: BLACK GOLD Hi Everyone. Change in plans. We will post Toms and DWA's commentaries for this next week. After that they will definitely be on the DWA site only. I'll post the market summary but don't know if I can post the stock or trading suggestions for the day. BLACK GOLD: I can remember being on vacation in Venice Florida many years ago, thumbing through a Standard & Poors booklet trying to list all the stocks that began with "Oil". Whether the stock had anything to do with oil was unimportant. All it needed was a name that smacked of oil. Even companies like Exiter Oil in California, a tar sand oil extraction company, was flying. I realize there are people on CNBC that don't think oil is going anywhere and that the cartel will begin cheating again but I seriously doubt it. Oil is probably going to $20 a barrel and the Saudi's feel that $25 a barrel is fair. Countries like Venezuela who have a propensity to cheat on their allotment were brought to their knees recently when the Saudi's opened the spigot and brought the price of oil down to around $13. They produce at about $1 a barrel and Venezuela produces at around $10 a barrel. The Venezuelan government derives about 60% of their revenues from oil and if oil is around $13 a barrel there "ain't much" in the way of funds to be had. This means that the basic government services the people are use to are cut at $13 a barrel or damn painful to say the least. For the government, it presents a real problem, like an uprising and possibility of an overthrow. It does happen in these countries. I think the Venezuelan government got the picture this last time. I realize there is a person on CNBC that rants and raves each day about how oil service and oil is not the place, but he is wrong. Not only will oil stocks do well with $20 a barrel oil but it will have an effect on inflation that so many on CNBC are absolutely sure will never reappear. They will be surprised. We recommended SLB the other night and there are many others that look very good. I particularly like the big guys like CHV, TX & XON to name a couple. I recommended oil on CNBC a few months ago and as usual got a strange look from the interviewer. It was about the same on the April show, when I said to buy gold..."You have to be kidding me". -Tom Dorsey. Market Commentary: A New Dawn Message 4275191

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