Thomas,
First, i have to say that I feel like you're not reading my posts..or perhaps you don't know what's been going on. AT&T decided to use ASND backbone ATM switches well over a year ago....for a variety of reasons. Price per port, FR/ATM Interworking, and the fact that AT&T didn't want to be tied to a single carrier for all ATM and FR service offereings. This information is very old and has nothing to do with the current AT&T outage. Yes, StrataCom was "in the game" and was highly favored, but in the end, as I said, T didn't want a single vendor...they had already been having difficulty in keeping up with demand because STRM couldn't deliver switches fast enough. So I appreciate your attempt at FUD, but it's lost on me.
Second, why do you put so much credence in analysts that write "we believe"? Perhaps you should do some of your own DD instead of reading the dd that others do. Have you talked to IR at any of these companies or do you know anybody at these companies? Or is it that you simply like to stir things up in here? Hey, don't get me wrong....we can take it...in fact it's been a while since we've had a short in here and I find it interesting, however I'd appreciate some facts backing your original claim that CSCO is losing carrier business due to the AT&T problem. You haven't, you only posted old news.
Here's a few facts:
CSCO is winning RBOC's - business that STRM couldn't win alone. This includes USWEST, and Pac Bell. GTE was indeed a fiasco and we have yet to see ASND pull this pup out either. But in every opportuntity there is the possibility of failure. Indeed it looks like Cisco didn't handle this one well. I'll give you that. But again, it has nothing to do with the AT&T issue.
CSCO continues to dominate the enterprise space. ASND is not even competing here. NT, LU are there but are far less effective.
CSCO continues to meet and beat expectations. Hey, they must be doing something right.
CSCO is winning carrier business with their old BPX switches!!! These switches are now 3, perhaps even 4 years old. Hmmmmm, seems to me something must be due here. Wonder what will happen if CSCO comes out with a newer, bigger, badder, ATM switch.... They beat the crap out of ASND in the RAS market and sent them scurring to the CSCC business to keep them afloat. They've done a good job so far, but what happens if CSCO takes it to them again..? Where will they go next. CSCO has shown a knack (ala MSFT) for nailing a competitor hard when they want to.
There are hundreds of carriers throughout the world. For every account you say CSCO has lost I can name one they have won. So, you can choose to claim the glass is half empty...and you could choose to short the stock. Or you could choose to view the glass as half full and go long. It's your choice. But, do me a favor, can you provide more up date information about your negative slant rather than pulling up information that's months...even years old. If you have to go back that far for negative data then that only makes me feel better about my investment.
Gary |
