>Ahh, isn't hindsight such a wonderful thing.... Back then few here would admit to the troubles Apple was in. Now in the safety of Job's new found direction, we have the bulls slowly but surely saying "of course we knew Apple was screwed up all along"...<
Alomex;
My book on AAPL has always been "great technology" with "fair-to-lousy management".
Management screwups made it possible for investors to buy world class technology, a rabidly loyal customer base, and internationally visible brand name for little more than book value.
Did I know management under Spindler/Sculley was that bad? -- No.
Did I know that Amelio had the charisma of marzipan? -- Yes.
Did I know that Jobs was going to take over and totally re-energize the company? -- Not till he called and asked my opinion.
There's no way I, or any investor without insider info, could've predicted the exact naure and timing of events. But I did know, (as a long-term value investor) that (given the circumstances) *something* had to give.
In hindsight, Calpers giving AAPL's BOD "worst of class" honors should've been the "buy" signal.
While such thinking is par for value investors -- looking at underlying breakup/takeover value even though the near-term outlook sucks big-time -- it's fairly unique with technology analysts, where they are trained to look for 3-months-to-a-year "earnings growth stories". This inefficiency opened the door for long-term (3-10 years) value investors such as Prince Al Waleed (sp?) to take big positions.
AAPL's stellar stock performance vis-a-vis the rest of the S&P 500 this year gives us some sense of the change in thinking.
When and if AAPL achieves the kind of trailing/projected earnings, it will be universally upgraded/valued comparably to other CPU-software vendors (a hell of a lot higher than it is today.)
At that point, like the risk-averse little coward I am (terrified of anything that evens *smells* like an earnings momentum story) I will have sold off most of my holdings.
soup |
