GLCP - SOME Research DD
From already announced Press Releases Greenland has the following:
Pilot programs in Oregon, Utah & Connecticut and has an agreement for 100K meters in Richmond, California. Someone also posted that they saw a TV news item discussing Greenland installing 120K meter reading devices in Virginia.
They have an agreement with a Brazilian company to sell their technology to Brazilian utilities. Total Brazilian market, approx 150 million total meters. GLCP is the first to be in Brazil.
They have an agreement with a Mexican firm to sell meter reading devices to be used for parking meters in Mexico. They estimate annual revenues of 9 million from the first 30,000 to be installed.
This company will also try and sell utility reading devices for GLCP in Portugal and Spain.
A recent corporate filing also mentions negotiations with utilities in Puerto Rico for AMR devices.
Competition:
Main competitor is the established company, Itron.
They had sales of around $216 million last year and currently have a market cap of about the same. (valued at one times sales)
Itron, according to Greenland has an inferior tecnology.
A full matrix comparing Itron's features to Greenland's appears in Greenland's 1997 annual report.
It is too long to reproduce here in full, but here are some highlights:
1) Greenland's product is cheaper by 25%,
2) It retrofits, meaning it can be put onto existing meters in 10
minutes without having to change the existing meter, Itron's
system requires a new meter to be installed (expensive)
3) Greenland's system has a signal distance of 18 miles compared
compared to only 1/2 mile for Itron, therefore eliminating the
need and expense of several data collection spots to send
info to the utility. Itron's signals also encounter significant
signal interferance.
Many more differences are explained in the report, please refer to it.
Oregon utility general manager, " I believe this product far exceeds any other AMR system available today"
Possible stock price valuation:
Itron with "inferior" technology is valued at one times sales.
Greenland has 37 million shares. We have all heard the figure $300 million floating around as the amount of deals presently awaiting FCC approval.
At one times sales, GLCP should reach $8.10. That is on fundamental analysis, obviously hype and excitement could send it much higher.
Lets be more conservative and say that only 1/3 of the deals can be signed and announced. That would give us a conservative price of $2.70. Again,hype or excitement or the belief greater things are coming could send the price much higher.
Considering the stock is trading at .25, with a total market cap of just over 9 million, and further considering that their first parking meter deal in Mexico is estimated to bring in $9 million a year all by itself, can anyone disagree that we are way undervalued and could be headed for several dollars a share over the next month?
Any comments?
RCJIII |
