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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 221.24-0.6%Dec 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: Norman Klein who wrote (3827)5/2/1998 3:42:00 PM
From: William T. Katz  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
CDNow is a better short. I've just made short positions in both AMZN and CDNow, but CDNow is more overvalued.

From the simple P/S, AMZN is at $94 with $87 million in last qtr revenue while CDNW is at $30 with $10 million in last qtr. The main reason any of these internet stocks are highly valued depends on the name recognition. Here, Amazon.com is known and it is not necessarily tied to just books. CDNow, on the other hand, is both more obscure and its tied to CDs.

Competition, as you state, is fierce for CD sales and know CDNow must contend with K-Tel (which doesn't look too bad), Music Boulevard, Amazon.com, Borders, and lots of non-exclusive CD sellers. CDNow growth rate is simply not impressive. Even if you assume $50 million in annual revenue, CDNow is heavily overvalued.

I plan on accumulating a larger CDNW short if it moves higher.
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