John,
Don't take any crap off anyone. You are on to something called the truth. People on this thread would do well to study the history of the laser business in America.
Facts:
1. There is an installed base of 6,000 lasers in America. Basically one for every hospital. Most of them are currently being used as doorstops. This should tell you something.
2. This installed base belongs to three companies: Laserscope, SLT and Lasersonics. Do you really think these biggies are going to sit on their butts and watch PLC? They have an installed base to protect.
3. There are probably ten other laser box companies in the US and at least 25 laser fiber companies our there, just waiting to pounce once someone else like PLC or CGCP does the heavy lifting with the FDA.
4. Over the past 7 years the laser business has gone through 3 boom phases only to very quickly die out once the doctors and the hospitals found a much cheaper way to do the same thing. These booms were laporascopic gall bladder removal in 1990, laparoscopic hysterectomy in 1992 and BPH therapy in 1994. You can also throw in using lasers to clean out coronary arteries (a complete disaster). Each time the "rockets" tragically exploded shortly after liftoff and after a lot of hospitals got burned with some very expensive equipment. Do not underestimate the cumulative backlash against this technology in the medical community. Administrators have heard it all before.
5. The money is always in the fiber business and not in the box business. Despite companies efforts to make proprietary connectors between the box and the fiber, there will quickly be a huge grey market of knock off fibers to PLC's system. Also, Europeans are known for re-using laser fibers many times (no way to stop it). Don't assume one procedure equals one new fiber.
6. Don't count on PLC's PMA from the FDA to stop any competitors from piggybacking. The slugs in the laser industry are adept at circumventing the FDA. Please read up on the history of using lasers to treat BPH. Everyone lost, but the ones who really got slaughtered were the companies who spent the big bucks and tried to do good science through the FDA.
7. By the way, I have been told that the PLC laser weighs 2000 pounds and is about the sixe of a small dumpster. If true, this will not help their penetration, particulary if hospital OR's cannot accomodate the size of the equipment.
Please realize I think the TMR therapy is very, very promising. However, people should not confuse the promising therapy, with a promising business or investment opportunity. They are not always the same and there are several valid reasons listed above why I doubt PLC's business model will yield long-term results.
The stock price might go up for a while, but ultimately the stock will fail. I have seen it all before at least three times. For this reason I am neither long or short on this one. Keep the old eyes open if you play and take your money off the table if the stock has strong upward movements - it won't last. |
