Lengthy TDW hand-holding (and irresponsible guesses) for P. K., et al. In all probability worth less than you'll pay for it. Skipping advised. Otherwise, patience and a strong stomach required to make it through the worst waste of pixels to appear on this board. Unwitting apple-to-orange comparisons, among myriad other amateurish offences, to follow. Poking of still more holes in my already porous analysis roundly encouraged.
Thanks, and best wishes to all.
ian
Papaya--
You read the short interest list, I know, but maybe the rest of the TDW longs missed it. As of ten days ago -- when the TDW shorts last had to peek their heads above water -- the bears owed their brokers almost five trading days of TDW stock. Since then, they've had just two really good down days to cover: April 23 and 24, as TDW traded off a high of approx. $41.50 to somewhere just below $38.00 intraday, and volume was strong.
All this week TDW traded incrementally higher on near-average volume. Yesterday, as all of you know, TDW just hung fire ahead of earnings; no pop to either the price or the volume. My guess is that, unlike you P. K., most folks stood pat, long or short. If we give your smart shorts, say, two days of their shares back on the earlier dip and through the week, that still may leave 2.5 million short shares outstanding. I think they may be fighting to get back in early, seizing any weakness they can find during a general, upward trend. That may provide some downside cushion against a Monday disappointment.
Now for some blue-sky possibilities: As I posted before, EVI shares flew off a nice earnings report a week ago Wednesday, solidly outpacing the OSX on a strong day. Since nice earnings reports don't always count as much in this sector as crude prices and market sentiment, I think some of EVI's healthier advance came because the bears were caught seven days short. Yesterday, EVI again jumped big -- up 8.69 percent -- and again clobbered a rising OSX. Some of that, too, likely was short money still chasing a runaway train.
And this great news from the best-to-be-lucky-and-smart bin: Someone followed up on my half-baked observation about an EVI short scramble of Wednesday week. They bought PDE because I had wondered whether, having been so heavily shorted ( 5 days' vol.) into earnings, PDE too might soar if their quarter went well. Lucky. They also bought PDE because Big likes the company. Smart.
Yesterday, all the heavens converged for PDE -- crude rallied, they beat estimates, mo-mo money may have arrived -- and PDE rocketed up 11 percent, better than twice the gain of the surging OSX. The stock closed at its high for the day and they let their money ride. They don't think the shorts have done covering. I bet that's right.
It would be tough to say that necessary connections show in any of this. (Much-shorted NBR performed very well yesterday; NE relatively poorly.) It requires a substantial leap to ascribe so much to short covering. It could just be coincidence. I also realize that I've tossed together a fruit salad of different business segments, company histories, etc., making meaningful conclusions that much more difficult to draw. But...
It seems like TDW did its bit to guide estimates down to a reasonable level. If crude holds tough and TDW meets projections -- very big ifs, no doubt -- you wouldn't want to miss the short stampede that follows. If more production cuts appear this weekend and TDW beats estimates, Monday will see TDW shares post the biggest single day's gain in the history of equity trading. How's that for irrational exuberance? I'm giving it my all. Iacta alea est. Good luck longs.
ian |
