Larry,
You are absolutely right, not all 18-20 companies can make PC100 right now.
The list I am aware of that are shipping are:
Samsung
Hitachi
Mits
NEC
Toshiba
Micron starting to
Hyundai
LG
Fujitsu
Based on the current PC100 volume that I am aware I think these guys are not able to find enough homes for all their current supply. Now there may be some mix issues come up short term, but this adequate supply is causing pressure on the PC100 premiums. Once the PC100 demand ramps to Q4 levels, then maybe some are hoping for a bit of tightening, or maybe not.Its like interest rates, is Greenspan goingraise or not raise them.
Now, if there are some production, qual issues along the way, I think EE times May 4th issue, mentions that question, then it could change things, but right now, it looks ok from my data anyway. Its going to be interesting to watch, as DRAM pricing for 64M is continuing to drop.
Some are hoping for 16M stabilization to create crossover but not yet,, but closer.
I appreciate your charts and posts. I am real curious about your outlook on MU next week.
Good trading. |
